Making decisions under uncertainty--the role of probabilistic decision modelling

Decision making under uncertainty

Decision making under uncertainty

1 Laboratory of Computational Neuroscience, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland 2 Laboratoire de Recherché en Neuroimagerie, Le Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, Switzerland 3 Information Processing and Economic Decision Making, Department of Psychology, Universität Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany 4 Economic Psychology, Department of Psychology, Univers...

Decision Making under Extreme Uncertainty

Beliefs about an unknown distribution can be defined as a measure on the space of probability density functions. This paper (1) characterizes the set of beliefs that satisfy invariance postulates (2) establishes that updating invariant beliefs leads to a posterior distribution with tail asymptotically approaching 1 x(lnx)n . Note to seminar participant at Wharton: Part I of this paper is primar...

Decision Making under Interval Uncertainty

To make a decision, we must find out the user’s preference, and help the user select an alternative which is the best – according to these preferences. Traditional decision theory is based on a simplifying assumption that for each two alternatives, a user can always meaningfully decide which of them is preferable. In reality, often, when the alternatives are close, the user is often unable to s...

Role Taking Under Financial Risk Decision Making

This paper explores people’s behavior when they are facing financial risks. Through the setting of an economics experiment, people’s willingness to bear financial risks and their tendency to impose risks on others are investigated. The experiment result shows that most people are risk-neutral or risk-averse when making decision under financial environment, and their tendency to impose risks on ...